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Cambridge University
POLIS

Settlement barometer

 

Settlement barometer

KEY:

1-10% = Extremely Unlikely

10-25% = Very Unlikely

25-40% = Unlikely

40-60% = Reasonable Prospects

60-75% = Likely

75-90% = Very Likely

90-100% = Extremely Likely

 

As of 20 May 2022, a settlement is ‘very unlikely’ in the near future. After discussion of positions through the Istanbul Process, Russia reoriented its military objectives to achieve effective control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine. Alleged war crimes have also made negotiations difficult. During the recent visit by the UN Secretary-General, discussions with President Putin were limited to humanitarian issues, particularly in Mariupol, rather than a general settlement. Since then, both sides have accused the other for stalled peace talks. In the longer-term, while Russia’s confined military aims appear achievable, a settlement will continue to be unlikely; but potential for protracted local resistance in the Donbas and Ukrainian counterattacks will raise the prospects for a settlement in the future.

 

Statement by the Vice Chancellor

The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. Professor Stephen J. Toope

“Over the past few weeks, many of us have been grappling with the question of how the University of Cambridge can help – not only to mitigate the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, but to contribute meaningfully to peace in the region. The Ukraine Peace Settlement Project shows that our scholars’ expertise can have an impact that extends far beyond the academic realm. Although all concerned acknowledge that an agreement is difficult to envision at this time, it is crucially important for background work to commence. The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. The Project is a tangible and necessary contribution to the resolution of a brutal war.”

Professor Stephen J. Toope, Vice Chancellor of the University of Cambridge

 

 

 

Map of Ukraine on digital screen. Credit: Getty Images.