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Cambridge University
POLIS

Settlement barometer

 

Settlement barometer

KEY:

1-10% = Extremely Unlikely

10-25% = Very Unlikely

25-40% = Unlikely

40-60% = Reasonable Prospects

60-75% = Likely

75-90% = Very Likely

90-100% = Extremely Likely

 

As of 12 January 2023, a settlement is ‘very unlikely’ in the near future. The sides were close to an agreement through the Istanbul Process in March 2022. When peace talks broke down, Russia reoriented its military objectives to secure control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. Since then, negotiations have been limited to humanitarian issues, grain exports, and the security of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site. Despite recent statements concerning conditions for peace talks, Russia’s annexation of the four Ukrainian regions has created an impasse over territory and military withdrawal. In the longer term, ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, and protracted local resistance in occupied territories, may raise prospects for a settlement.

 

Statement by the Vice Chancellor

The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. Professor Stephen J. Toope

“Over the past few weeks, many of us have been grappling with the question of how the University of Cambridge can help – not only to mitigate the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, but to contribute meaningfully to peace in the region. The Ukraine Peace Settlement Project shows that our scholars’ expertise can have an impact that extends far beyond the academic realm. Although all concerned acknowledge that an agreement is difficult to envision at this time, it is crucially important for background work to commence. The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. The Project is a tangible and necessary contribution to the resolution of a brutal war.”

Professor Stephen J. Toope, Vice Chancellor of the University of Cambridge

 

 

 

Map of Ukraine on digital screen. Credit: Getty Images.